The Match Engine

The Probability Calculator: How the result is decided.


The Hattrick engine is not a visual representation of football, but a probabilistic simulator that acts as a complex calculator.

1. Midfield: The engine of opportunities

Midfield is the most decisive sector of the game because it controls ball possession.

  • Chance Generation: The system generates a fixed number of conventional attacks in each half. The team with the stronger midfield is more likely to receive most of these opportunities.
  • Slot Occupation: A 60% possession usually translates to that team enjoying the majority of the match's attacks.
Possession = % Attacks

Fundamental Law of the Hattrick Engine

2. Sectorial Duel (Attack vs. Defence)

When the engine decides a team receives an attack, the location is randomly determined: left, center, right, or set pieces.

The Comparison

The attack rating of the team with the chance in a sector (e.g., your right attack) is compared directly against the opponent's defence in that same sector (their left defence).

Goal Conversion

The ratio between your attack rating and their defence rating determines the actual probability of the chance ending in a goal.

3. Ratings: The Key to Success

To understand the engine, you must ignore individual stars and focus on team ratings.

Each visible level is divided into four sub-levels. This explains why a "solid (very high)" can be almost as strong as an "excellent (very low)".
Stars vs. Ratings

Stars only indicate individual performance in a position; ratings are what the engine actually uses to calculate the final match result.

4. Special Events (SE)

Unlike conventional attacks, SEs are additional opportunities that do not depend directly on midfield strength.

Possession Influence

While they don't depend on midfield, the probability of getting an SE is proportional to possession (55% possession = 55% chance of receiving the SE).

Specialties

These can only trigger if you have players with the right specialties (Quick, Head, Technical, etc.) in the correct positions.

5. External Factors and Engine Variables

Home Advantage

The home team receives a midfield bonus thanks to their fans.

Weather

Affects attendance and the performance of players with certain specialties throughout the match.

Stamina

The engine applies a performance penalty as the match progresses if the player lacks sufficient stamina.

Previous guide

Individual Orders and Efficiency

Performance optimization and tactical adjustments by sector.

Next guide

Match Orders Configuration

The tactical document: roles, positions, and team management.